12 players to beat at the British Open

Looking back at my pre-tournament picks for the year's first two major golf championships, the Masters and U.S. Open, I noticed that there were only six players on both lists. In keeping with this pattern, I'll hang on to half of my choices from the U.S. Open and stick with them in the British Open, which begins Thursday at St. Andrews, Scotland.

But I'm not going with an equal number of Americans and non-Americans, as I did with the first two majors. I'm convinced someone from the U.S. is not likely to win at St. Andrews, so I'll only take Americans Phil Mickelson and Ricky Barnes, both risky picks and longshots but for different reasons. Yes, Mickelson, despite his win at the Masters this year, is a darkhorse to win the British Open, and I'll explain why.

The rest of my dozen picks this week will be foreigners. Included in that group are earlier picks Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, K.J. Choi and Robert Allenby. But I think the vast majority of Americans will struggle, and I'm sorry to say that includes established U.S. stars like Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker.

Here's how my new lineup looks:

Keeping: Mickelson, Poulter, Westwood, Choi, Allenby and Barnes.

Dumping: Americans Furyk, Stricker, Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney, plus Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland and Ryo Ishikawa of Japan.

Adding: Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Tim Clark, Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell and Justin Rose.

This shakeup of my dozen picks gives me three South Africans (Els, Clark, Goosen), three Brits (Poulter, Westwood, Rose), one from Northern Ireland (McDowell), a Spaniard (Garcia), an Australian (Allenby) and a South Korean (Choi).

And, if you're counting, that's five Europeans. Which would certainly be going against recent history. In the past 20 years, only three Europeans have won the British Open: Ireland's Padraig Harrington (2007, 2008), Scotland's Paul Lawrie (1999) and England's Nick Faldo (1990, 1992).

Why these 12, you say? And how come Tiger Woods, who won the British Open the last two times it was held at St. Andrews, is not on this list?

Conventional wisdom says Tiger should not only be the favorite this week, he should win. Many thought he would win the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach last month, since he had dominated the U.S. Open there in 2000, winning by 15 shots. But Tiger's fondness for the course was always a love-hate affair; especially irksome to him were Pebble's unpredictable poa annua putting surfaces.

St. Andrews, on the other hand, is truly in Tiger's wheelhouse. Asked earlier this year if he was excited about 2010, with the first three majors at Augusta (Masters), Pebble Beach (U.S. Open) and St. Andrews (British Open), Tiger clarified by saying he'd like to play "St. Andrews, St. Andrews, St. Andrews."

Tiger played well at Augusta considering his long layoff, not quite as well at the U.S. Open, and wound up tied for fourth at both majors. But I don't think he's there yet with his game. He might win, and I'll agree he's the favorite. I just don't see it.

As for my dozen, only four (Mickelson, Els, Goosen, McDowell) have ever won a major, and only one (Els) has won the British Open. Mickelson, by comparison, has an abyssmal record at the British Open, with only one top-10 finish and three missed cuts. But I feel like Phil, at 40, has learned a bit from his beat-downs at both the U.S. Open (five runner-up finishes) and the British Open.

Els, also 40, and Goosen, 41, view the British Open with the same reverence that Americans do the U.S. Open. Els won the 2002 British Open in a four-man playoff and has 11 other top-10 finishes in the event. Goosen has never hoisted the Claret Jug, but he has seven top-10 British Open finishes.

McDowell is a mostly sentimental pick, because I liked the way he handled himself down the stretch to capture the U.S. Open in June. Plus, anybody who can win at Pebble Beach has got to have some game.

The other foreigners? Poulter, 24, and Rose, 27, are the future of golf in England. Westwood, Clark, Garcia and Allenby, all in their 30s, are considered among the best players without a major title. Choi is looking to follow in the footsteps of countryman Y.E. Yang, who won last year's PGA Championship.

That leaves us with Barnes, maybe the darkest of my darkhorses. He has no PGA Tour victories and has played in only seven majors in seven-plus years since turning pro in 2003. But he was the runner-up at the 2009 U.S. Open and 10th at the Masters this year. Plus, he plays without fear and can hit the ball a mile.

That sounds a bit like a lovable, long-hitting guy from Arkansas who won the 1991 PGA Championship after having won nothing else on the PGA Tour. By the way, that guy, John Daly, also won the British Open, 15 years ago. At St. Andrews.

So dream on, Ricky Barnes. It can happen.

Halfway home and my guys are right there

Saturdays are called "moving day" on the pro golf tour, when players get themselves into position to contend for a title.

Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els decided they couldn't wait that long. The two tour veterans, both 40 and with a combined seven major championships between them, put themselves into contention on Friday in the second round of the U.S. Open.

Mickelson, winner of three Masters and a PGA Championship, fired a 5-under-par 66 at Pebble Beach Golf Links. He birdied four of his first six holes and had nine 3s on his card. Els, the tall South African who has two U.S. Open trophies and a British Open title to his credit, came in with a 3-under 68. The two of them are tied for second with Dustin Johnson and Japanese teen Ryo Ishikawa at 1-under 141, two shots behind Northern Ireland's Graeme McDowell, who backed up his opening 71 with a second-round 68.

And though I felt pretty good about my pre-tournament picks halfway through the Masters in April, I can't believe my good fortune at the midway point of the U.S. Open. Of my 12 players to beat, 11 made the cut. Three, Mickelson, Ishikawa and Johnson, are in the top 5, and, having picked South Korea's K.J. Choi and England's Ian Poulter, tied for 10th at 143 are identical 70-73 starts, I have five of the top 12.

Lee Westwood is my sixth-lowest player, tied for 16th at 3-over 145. Two others, Jim Furyk and Nick Watney, are tied for 37th at 147. Australian Robert Allenby and Ricky Barnes, at 148, are tied for 48th. Steve Stricker, at 149, was tied for 59th and just made the cut.

The only one of my pre-tourney predictions who failed to make the cut was Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy. The 21-year-old got schooled by the 18-year-old Ishikawa and 60-year-old Tom Watson in one of the most unusual pairings of the tournament. While McIlroy was shooting a sour 77 and going home at 152, Ishikawa and Watson were matching 71s to earn the right to play the weekend.

Oh, yeah, I hear Tiger Woods is also playing at Pebble Beach this week. In fact, you can't stop hearing about him on ESPN and NBC, and the official website guys (imagine fingernails on a chalkboard) at www.usopen.com are flapping their gums about a Tiger comeback. Considering their anointed one hasn't broken par either of the first two rounds and is seven shots back at 146, they better pack a lunch for that wait.

My money's still with Mickelson. He and Els are the only ones in the top 15 who have already won a major. It should make for an interesting weekend.

One round down ... and we're looking good

You can't win a major championship, or any 72-hole golf tournament for that matter, on the first day. But you sure can make it tough on yourself, and a few of the guys I picked as pre-tournament favorites stumbled a bit in the first round of the U.S. Open.

The opening round of the 110th U.S. Open is history now, and as you might expect, par was a fabulous number at Pebble Beach Golf Links. A trio leads at 2-under-par 69: England's Paul Casey, little-known Brendon de Jonge of Zimbabwe and American Shaun Micheel. Casey's a budding star, but the other two are typical of first rounds at the Open, where just about anyone could be a star for a day. Micheel's only PGA Tour victory was in a major, the 2003 PGA Championship, and de Jonge has just one win, too, but on the Nationwide tour, the PGA Tour's minor-league circuit.

A half-dozen players were at 1-under 70, including three of my 12 pre-tourney picks: England's Ian Poulter, South Korean veteran K.J. Choi and 18-year-old Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa. The sartorial Poulter usually is the flashiest dresser on the course, but Ishikawa, decked out all in pink, gets the award for boldest fashion statement. If his game is as confident as his choice in clothing, he'll still be in the hunt on Sunday.

Another of my picks, Dustin Johnson, the winner of the 2009 and 2010 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, was in a group of three players at even-par 71, while two more of my choices, Americans Jim Furyk and Ricky Barnes, were in a 15-player logjam at 1-over 72.

That's half my 12 picks right there up near the top of the leaderboard. The other half? Two were tied for 47th, Lee Westwood of England and Australian Robert Allenby, who joined Woods (who I left off my "12 players to beat" list) and 16 others at 3-over 74; Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker and Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy were among 24 players at 4-over 75; and Nick Watney, my admitted longest of longshots, was tied for 90th at 5-over 76.

In review, none of my 12 guys is out of it, certainly not like poor Blaine Peffley, a 25-year-old Hooters Tour player from Pennsylvania. His card showed 86, with a half-dozen 5s, two 6s and a fat 8 on the treacherous par-4 8th. He'll be checking out of his hotel on Friday.

Some of my guys, especially, Mickelson, Stricker, McIlroy and Watney, will have to pick it up a bit on Friday to not be in danger of missing the cut. A total of 60 players, and ties, and anyone within 10 shots of the leader, will get to play on the weekend. That 10-shot rule could be important, because it doesn't look anyone will be able to run away with it, and right now, 141 players (out of a field of 156), are within 10 shots of the lead.

USGA's web commentators stink

Before jumping into the first-round results of the U.S. Open, I want to take a moment to talk about how bad the commentators were on the official tournament website.

Pitiful. Pathetic. Awful. Amateurish.

In an effort to see some of the golf while at work but unable to view it on TV, I resorted to www.usopen.com, and the site's live web coverage. While the video was fine, the commentary was not. They had a "feature group" in the morning, and another in the afternoon. The latter was the threesome of Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Lee Westwood. Makes sense, but little did I know the guys calling the shots were more in love with Woods than his 14 girlfriends.

These numbskulls kept going on about how great Tiger was playing, and how poorly Els was doing. Crappy Els shot a 2-over 73; Terrific Tiger came in at 3-over 74, without a single birdie. Did you guys watch the golf, or were you too busy marveling at the sound of your own voices? That's another thing; they seemed to think it was their responsibility to fill every second with their pointless drivel.

More annoying was the endless blather about how much Tiger had to overcome this year. Excuse me, but Tiger is the one solely responsible for whatever it is he's "had to overcome." I was waiting for one of these idiots to blame Elin Woods for Tiger's serial infidelity.

Just for good measure, they threw in a couple off-color jokes about how difficult pro golf can be on your marriage. I'm not a prude, but this is the USGA's official website. I know this is just the Web, where decency is an afterthought and the search for truth is replaced by "close enough is good enough," but come on. Hey USGA, give these clowns some guidelines.

Or are these guys the best the USGA could come up with?

12 Players to beat at the U.S. Open

It's time to make my picks for the U.S. Open. Considering my success at the Masters (I had winner Phil Mickelson, along with runner-up Lee Westwood and third-place Anthony Kim), I'm feeling a bit flush this week. BTW, the guru also had Tiger Woods, who tied for fourth at Augusta.

This week, though, I'm taking the contrarian highway, and Tiger isn't anywhere along the route. I know, it seems borderline blasphemous to rule out the guy who won the Open by a record 15 shots the last time it was contested at Pebble Beach, in 2000. However, much has changed in the past 10 years (Bill Clinton was president back then and the Twin Towers in New York City still stood), and anyone who thinks Tiger is as dominant today as he was back then is seriously deluded.

Nevertheless, how, you ask, could Tiger not be in the top 12? The British bookies have installed him and Mickelson at 8-1, leading the contenders. I think they've got it right with Lefty, but not Righty.

There are at least a dozen top pros, some of whom weren't even on the tour in 2000, with more game than Righty right now. I'll take Europeans Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood, Japan's Ryo Ishikawa, South Korea's K.J. Choi and Australian Robert Allenby. In addition to Mickelson, U.S. players I figure to finish ahead of Tiger include Jim Furyk, Ricky Barnes, Steve Stricker, Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson. The last guy, incidentally, has an affinity for Pebble Beach. He's played the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am the past three years, where two of the four rounds are contested at Pebble, and all he's done is finish seventh in 2008 and first in 2009 and 2010.

A lot is made of the fact that Tiger blew away the Open field with a 12-under 276 total in 2000, but it's clear that he's not as good as he was then, and the course is way tougher.

For starters, there won't be anyone 12 under this year. This is not the Phoenix Open, and the stuffed shirts at the USGA don't take kindly to anyone making mincemeat of their layouts.

We'll know early on if any of these assessments are on target. You always hear players say that they tune out what their playing partners are doing, but it doesn't hurt to have a good grouping. Mickelson's paired the first two days with three-time major champion Padraig Harrington and Y.E. Yang, who captured the PGA Championship last year in a head-to-head stare-down with Woods. I like that pairing for Lefty.

Other good groupings: Stricker, one of the best putters on tour, with Sergio Garcia and Paul Casey. A proud American going off with two European Ryder Cup regulars is going to bring his "A" game. Furyk is in a threesome with multiple-major champions Retief Goosen and Angel Cabrera. I'll admit Watney and Barnes are longshots, but they're paired together and may just pull each other along with good play. Among the non-Americans I'm picking, the 21-year-old McIlroy and Ishikawa, 18, who won tournaments on two continents the same day back in May, are paired today and Friday with 60-year-old Tom Watson, a clever arrangement by the USGA. Westwood may have the toughest pairing, with Woods and Ernie Els, but I think he'll be up to it. Allenby may have the easiest pairing of any, teeing it up for two days with fellow Australians Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy.

Take Tiger, if you want. Nobody will call you crazy. But it's also not a very inspired choice. If Woods wins, I'll be the first to say bravo. I just don't see it.

The U.S. Open with (and without) TW

You can bet Tiger Woods will do all he can to rehab his neck injury in time to compete in the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach next month. The last time the Open was held at Pebble Beach, in 2000, Tiger set a record with a 15-shot victory.

Last summer, after the PGA Championship, most close observers said 2010 could be the year Tiger would make a run at the Grand Slam. He'd already won the Masters four times and was looking for a fifth at Augusta National; the U.S. Open would be held at Pebble Beach, where he had played a bit as an amateur while attending Stanford University and where he'd torched the U.S. Open field in 2000; the British Open was returning to St. Andrews, the home of golf and where Tiger had won the last two times it had been held there (2000, 2005), winning by 8 shots in 2000 with a 19-under-par 269, a record for all golf majors; the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wis., could have conceivably been the capper on a Tiger Slam.

Then came the infamous Thanksgiving weekend in which Tiger's secret life came crashing down, and, I believe, possibly taking with it his professional life.

His marital infidelity has been well documented, so I won't rehash the seamy details. However, I believe this stumble had a greater consequence of ripping away the aura of invincibility Tiger often carried around on the golf course. When he played well (which was most of the time), other pros had almost become convinced that he was unbeatable.

With that facade gone, Tiger is no longer feared on tour.

It's because of this comedown, I believe, that Tiger won't win another major, at Pebble Beach or anywhere else. It's highly likely the only TW we see at Pebble Beach this year is Tom Watson, who competed there in the '72 Open won by Jack Nicklaus, then beat Jack with his historic chip-in at the 71st hole in '82 and also played in Opens at Pebble Beach in '92 and in 2000.

Forget, for a moment, Tiger's personal life. Yes, his wife, Elin, reportedly will be filing for divorce any day. But personal strife is no kiss of death for professional athletes.

Nick Faldo, a winner of the Masters and British Open three times each, also has been married and divorced three times, and an ex-girlfriend once smashed his Porsche 959 with a golf club. Watson got divorced from his first wife at 48, but he's been a rousing success on the Senior PGA Tour, nearly won the British Open last year at 59 and was in the hunt for a long time this year at 60. Fred Couples won his only major championship, the 1992 Masters, during a year in which he and first wife Deborah were going through a bitter divorce. Ben Crenshaw's first wife, Polly, filed for divorce the week before the Masters in 1984; Ben won the Masters that year for his first major championship. Crenshaw also won the Masters in 1995, after serving as pallbearer earlier in the week for longtime friend and mentor Harvey Penick.

If these guys, and there are many more, can overcome personal problems to succeed in golf, surely Tiger, whose focus is legendary, would be able to do the same. But Tiger's problems aren't solely personal; it's his golf game that's in trouble.

I know, he came back after more than a 5-month layoff to finish tied for fourth in the Masters, a remarkable accomplishment, even for Tiger. But he missed the cut in his next start and looked pitiful at the Players Championship before picking up on the seventh hole of the final round. His neck injury no doubt contributed greatly to his poor play, but even while scoring well at Augusta his game looked more than just rusty.

As for his longtime swing coach, Hank Haney, leaving him earlier this week, I'm not sure if Hank was miffed about Tiger personally, of if the two simply decided there was no more to be gained from the player-coach relationship. Either way, it's not a good sign.

The worst sign, however, is Tiger's once-vaunted reputation. His shadow used to loom large over any event and especially the majors. While his presence at any tournament is still noteworthy, it has more of a car-wreck quality about it now.

Tiger can be beaten, and everybody knows it.

Was that really Tiger?

The greatest golfer of this century didn't win the Masters last month, but who really expected him to? I've taken five months off from golf before, and my game looked like crap the first time back. And yet Tiger put the clubs in the closet (I hope he took them away from Elin first), went to rehab for whatever private personal issues he couldn't talk about, then came out to Augusta, no pitch-and-putt and certain to expose any weaknesses in a person's game, and actually made a run for the Green Jacket.

That he didn't win wasn't surprising. That he didn't embarrass himself (aside from a verbal outburst or two) was surprising.

Then came Tiger's second tournament, and embarrassing doesn't begin to describe it. Paired for two days with Angel Cabrera, who has both a Green Jacket and a U.S. Open title to his credit, and Stewart Cink, last year's British Open champion, Tiger looked like a pro-am partner from Bushwood Country Club, all over the lot and, worse yet, seemingly not even caring.

In two rounds at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., Tiger posted 10 bogeys and three double-bogeys, needing to par the final three holes on Friday just to break 80, and missed the cut - by eight shots. Somehow, he managed seven birdies in two days, but it wasn't enough to keep him from recording a fat 43 on his final nine holes and 153 for two days, the worst 36-hole score of his illustrious career.

The numbers, though, don't do this mess justice. You had to see Tiger in action, playing "army" golf - left, right, left, right - and rarely finding the fairway. He showed little of that magician's touch we've come to expect, and, though he promised prior to the Masters that he would work harder to keep his anger in check, to see him follow through with almost no emotion at all was sad, to say the least. We've heard him utter F-bombs, not very attractive; now we've seen him become emotionally detached, which might be even more scary.

If Tiger's play at Quail Hollow was pathetic, his reaction could only be described as apathetic.

You wouldn't think it could get worse, but it might. Tiger found the water on several occasions at Quail Hollow. But the course that awaits him next week - TPC at Sawgrass, site of the Players Championship - has water on nearly every hole, including the final three in what is the make-or-break stage of the "fifth major" for touring pros.

Roughly 400 years ago, the English clergyman and poet John Donne observed that "no man is an island." It may be too early to tell if Tiger is becoming (or trying to become) an island unto himself, but when he stands on the tee at Sawgrass' infamous 17th hole, observing a green almost completely surrounded by water, what will he see?

At that moment, will he feel like an island?