This week, though, I'm taking the contrarian highway, and Tiger isn't anywhere along the route. I know, it seems borderline blasphemous to rule out the guy who won the Open by a record 15 shots the last time it was contested at Pebble Beach, in 2000. However, much has changed in the past 10 years (Bill Clinton was president back then and the Twin Towers in New York City still stood), and anyone who thinks Tiger is as dominant today as he was back then is seriously deluded.
Nevertheless, how, you ask, could Tiger not be in the top 12? The British bookies have installed him and Mickelson at 8-1, leading the contenders. I think they've got it right with Lefty, but not Righty.
There are at least a dozen top pros, some of whom weren't even on the tour in 2000, with more game than Righty right now. I'll take Europeans Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood, Japan's Ryo Ishikawa, South Korea's K.J. Choi and Australian Robert Allenby. In addition to Mickelson, U.S. players I figure to finish ahead of Tiger include Jim Furyk, Ricky Barnes, Steve Stricker, Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson. The last guy, incidentally, has an affinity for Pebble Beach. He's played the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am the past three years, where two of the four rounds are contested at Pebble, and all he's done is finish seventh in 2008 and first in 2009 and 2010.
A lot is made of the fact that Tiger blew away the Open field with a 12-under 276 total in 2000, but it's clear that he's not as good as he was then, and the course is way tougher.
For starters, there won't be anyone 12 under this year. This is not the Phoenix Open, and the stuffed shirts at the USGA don't take kindly to anyone making mincemeat of their layouts.
We'll know early on if any of these assessments are on target. You always hear players say that they tune out what their playing partners are doing, but it doesn't hurt to have a good grouping. Mickelson's paired the first two days with three-time major champion Padraig Harrington and Y.E. Yang, who captured the PGA Championship last year in a head-to-head stare-down with Woods. I like that pairing for Lefty.
Other good groupings: Stricker, one of the best putters on tour, with Sergio Garcia and Paul Casey. A proud American going off with two European Ryder Cup regulars is going to bring his "A" game. Furyk is in a threesome with multiple-major champions Retief Goosen and Angel Cabrera. I'll admit Watney and Barnes are longshots, but they're paired together and may just pull each other along with good play. Among the non-Americans I'm picking, the 21-year-old McIlroy and Ishikawa, 18, who won tournaments on two continents the same day back in May, are paired today and Friday with 60-year-old Tom Watson, a clever arrangement by the USGA. Westwood may have the toughest pairing, with Woods and Ernie Els, but I think he'll be up to it. Allenby may have the easiest pairing of any, teeing it up for two days with fellow Australians Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy.
Take Tiger, if you want. Nobody will call you crazy. But it's also not a very inspired choice. If Woods wins, I'll be the first to say bravo. I just don't see it.
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