Looking back at my pre-tournament picks for the year's first two major golf championships, the Masters and U.S. Open, I noticed that there were only six players on both lists. In keeping with this pattern, I'll hang on to half of my choices from the U.S. Open and stick with them in the British Open, which begins Thursday at St. Andrews, Scotland.
But I'm not going with an equal number of Americans and non-Americans, as I did with the first two majors. I'm convinced someone from the U.S. is not likely to win at St. Andrews, so I'll only take Americans Phil Mickelson and Ricky Barnes, both risky picks and longshots but for different reasons. Yes, Mickelson, despite his win at the Masters this year, is a darkhorse to win the British Open, and I'll explain why.
The rest of my dozen picks this week will be foreigners. Included in that group are earlier picks Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, K.J. Choi and Robert Allenby. But I think the vast majority of Americans will struggle, and I'm sorry to say that includes established U.S. stars like Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker.
Here's how my new lineup looks:
Keeping: Mickelson, Poulter, Westwood, Choi, Allenby and Barnes.
Dumping: Americans Furyk, Stricker, Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney, plus Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland and Ryo Ishikawa of Japan.
Adding: Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Tim Clark, Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell and Justin Rose.
This shakeup of my dozen picks gives me three South Africans (Els, Clark, Goosen), three Brits (Poulter, Westwood, Rose), one from Northern Ireland (McDowell), a Spaniard (Garcia), an Australian (Allenby) and a South Korean (Choi).
And, if you're counting, that's five Europeans. Which would certainly be going against recent history. In the past 20 years, only three Europeans have won the British Open: Ireland's Padraig Harrington (2007, 2008), Scotland's Paul Lawrie (1999) and England's Nick Faldo (1990, 1992).
Why these 12, you say? And how come Tiger Woods, who won the British Open the last two times it was held at St. Andrews, is not on this list?
Conventional wisdom says Tiger should not only be the favorite this week, he should win. Many thought he would win the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach last month, since he had dominated the U.S. Open there in 2000, winning by 15 shots. But Tiger's fondness for the course was always a love-hate affair; especially irksome to him were Pebble's unpredictable poa annua putting surfaces.
St. Andrews, on the other hand, is truly in Tiger's wheelhouse. Asked earlier this year if he was excited about 2010, with the first three majors at Augusta (Masters), Pebble Beach (U.S. Open) and St. Andrews (British Open), Tiger clarified by saying he'd like to play "St. Andrews, St. Andrews, St. Andrews."
Tiger played well at Augusta considering his long layoff, not quite as well at the U.S. Open, and wound up tied for fourth at both majors. But I don't think he's there yet with his game. He might win, and I'll agree he's the favorite. I just don't see it.
As for my dozen, only four (Mickelson, Els, Goosen, McDowell) have ever won a major, and only one (Els) has won the British Open. Mickelson, by comparison, has an abyssmal record at the British Open, with only one top-10 finish and three missed cuts. But I feel like Phil, at 40, has learned a bit from his beat-downs at both the U.S. Open (five runner-up finishes) and the British Open.
Els, also 40, and Goosen, 41, view the British Open with the same reverence that Americans do the U.S. Open. Els won the 2002 British Open in a four-man playoff and has 11 other top-10 finishes in the event. Goosen has never hoisted the Claret Jug, but he has seven top-10 British Open finishes.
McDowell is a mostly sentimental pick, because I liked the way he handled himself down the stretch to capture the U.S. Open in June. Plus, anybody who can win at Pebble Beach has got to have some game.
The other foreigners? Poulter, 24, and Rose, 27, are the future of golf in England. Westwood, Clark, Garcia and Allenby, all in their 30s, are considered among the best players without a major title. Choi is looking to follow in the footsteps of countryman Y.E. Yang, who won last year's PGA Championship.
That leaves us with Barnes, maybe the darkest of my darkhorses. He has no PGA Tour victories and has played in only seven majors in seven-plus years since turning pro in 2003. But he was the runner-up at the 2009 U.S. Open and 10th at the Masters this year. Plus, he plays without fear and can hit the ball a mile.
That sounds a bit like a lovable, long-hitting guy from Arkansas who won the 1991 PGA Championship after having won nothing else on the PGA Tour. By the way, that guy, John Daly, also won the British Open, 15 years ago. At St. Andrews.
So dream on, Ricky Barnes. It can happen.
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