12 players to beat at the Masters

A field of 98 golfers tee off Thursday in the Masters. But only 12 have a chance of wearing the Green Jacket on Sunday. And here's why:

• Two (Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus) are only ceremonial entrants and will hit an opening tee shot and then pick up. That leaves 96.
• There are 17 players making their first Masters appearance. Fuzzy Zoeller was the last guy to win the Masters in his first visit. That was in 1979. The odds of a first-timer winning in 2010, especially this crop of rookies, should be astronomical. That takes it down to 79.
• While we're at it, let's go beyond the first-timers. History says, on average, Masters winners have had just over seven tries at Augusta before breaking through. Of the remaining 79, there are 43 who have played in six or fewer Masters. And I'm eliminating all but four (who I will defend later). Now we're left with 40.
• We'll go in the other direction and cut the veterans who don't have enough game for this course any more. I see nine players in this category, and I feel bad about this, because all nine are former Masters champions. But if any of you want to take Tom Watson, Ben Crenshaw, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam, Craig Stadler, Fred Couples, Mark O'Meara and Larry Mize, you're welcome to them. Otherwise, we're down to 31.
• Next to go are the guys who, I think, have had their shot and it's just not going to happen for them in a major. You know who I'm talking about here: Sergio Garcia. But he's not alone. I'd put Robert Allenby (55 majors, 0 titles), Kenny Perry, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Scott Verplank in this group. That leaves 26.
• Another cut that hurts are former major champions who aren't solid enough any more to top this field over four days. This club includes Vijay Singh, Justin Leonard, Mike Weir, David Toms and Michael Campbell. Now we're at 21.
• The last nine out of the running? Angel Cabrera, the defending champion, is too inconsistent, as is Rory Sabbatini. Stewart Cink hasn't done much of anything since beating Watson in a playoff at last year's British Open. Trevor Immelman won the Masters in 2008 but is only now coming back from a wrist injury. K.J. Choi might be a contender, but he'll have to deal with the madness of playing with Tiger Woods for at least the first two days. Shingo Katayama is a good player, but it took him seven years at Augusta before he was able to break 70. David Duval would be my sentimental pick, but I'm not convinced he has the mental toughness needed to deal with the course's nerve-wracking greens. Aussie Adam Scott is playing better than his miserable 2009, but he's never broken 70 in 28 rounds at Augusta; plucky South African Tim Clark hasn't won any PGA Tour event, and I don't see it happening on golf's grandest stage.
• The final 12? Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk, Paul Casey, Ian Poulter, Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington, Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim and Retief Goosen. As noted above, four have limited experience at Augusta. Casey and Poulter will each be making their sixth Masters appearance; Casey already has four top-20s at Augusta. McIlroy and Kim will each be playing in their second Masters, but both are fearless competitors, and Kim won last week's Houston Open.

And who do I think will win? I'm pretty confident it will come from my 12 finalists. Half of them (Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Els, Harrington and Goosen) have already won major championships. Woods, despite his long layoff, probably should be the favorite, but I think it might come down to the European contingent (Brits Westwood, Casey and Poulter, Ireland's Harrington and Northern Ireland's McIlroy) battling the big South African, Els. The last European to win the Masters was Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999, the eighth European champion at Augusta in a 12-year span.