Friday, April 9, 2010

Hits and misses

Handicapping golf tournaments is kind of like predicting the weather. You're bound to be right on some things and just as likely to be way off on others.
In a blog previewing the Masters, I said there were really only 12 players who could win the tournament, even though almost 100 teed it up on Thursday. And, like the weatherman, I was spot-on with some of my selections and out of bounds with some others.
I had Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood in my top 12, and both opened with solid 67s. Tiger Woods, showing little effects of the 5-month layoff for personal reasons, opened with a 68, as did Ian Poulter and Anthony Kim. Ernie Els, who turned 40 last October, was in the hunt at 71.
That's half of my picks under par, not bad.
But I was slightly less accurate going with Steve Stricker (73), Padraig Harrington (74), Rory McIlroy (74), Retief Goosen (74) and Paul Casey (75), and grossly off the mark with Jim Furyk (80).
Furyk, who's had four top-10 finishes in his 13 previous Masters appearances, already had won a tournament this year and looked to be ready. His first-round collapse was puzzling. I certainly didn't see that coming.
I also wouldn't have predicted some startlingly solid play by some others. I had written off several former Masters champions and should have known better. Fred Couples, the 1992 champ, led with a 66. Two-time winner Tom Watson (1977, 1981) shot 67, not bad for a 60-year-old who is trying to become (by 14 years) the oldest Masters champion ever. Sandy Lyle (1988) had a credible 69, and Bernhard Langer (1985, 1993) came in at 71.
Update: Lyle, one of the early starters on Friday, is quickly giving it all back. The Scottish golfer who had missed the cut at the Masters 12 of the past 21 years, including the year after his victory 22 years ago, was 14 over through his first 14 holes. Sorry, Sandy.

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