This is not hedging my bets. Tiger Woods will one day be the greatest golfer of all time. Using strictly empirical evidence, that will come when he wins his 19th major championship to move past Jack Nicklaus, who has 18.
Until that day, though, Nicklaus must still be considered the greatest golfer of all time.
There is no question that Woods has had the most profound effect on golf since Arnold Palmer made it a game for the masses in the early 1960s with his U.S. Open victory at Cherry Hills, his resurrection of a then-moribund British Open by winning in 1961 and his four Masters titles in even-numbered years between 1958 and 1964.
I would go further to suggest that Woods has had a greater impact on the game of golf than any single athlete has ever had in elevating his or her sport. Babe Ruth? Jackie Robinson? Baseball remains the "National Pastime," and nothing or any one player will change that. Michael Jordan? The NBA has had phenomenal athletes before and since Jordan and will continue to long after Lebron James retires. The NFL? Even less likely to produce that one athlete who stands above the crowd in a way that makes non-fans come onboard. Roger Federer? Tennis has its heroes of many eras (Laver, Borg, Sampras, et al), and though Roger's numbers are impressive, he also has no real peer (except Rafael Nadal, on clay) that can help elevate him to a singular pedestal. Wayne Gretzky? Perhaps in Canada. In America, the NHL has few casual fans outside the die-hards.
Mark Spitz? Michael Phelps? Sorry, swimming, like all other sports propped up by the Olympics (track, gymnastics, etc.), is really thought about only every four years.
In the case of Tiger Woods, no single player has so drastically altered the landscape like he has with golf. There are people who don't play - or even understand - golf who consider themselves fans since Tiger turned pro in 1996 and won the Masters by a whopping 12 shots in 1997. The whole "you the man" or "in the hole" shouts may have started with John Daly's improbable win in the 1991 PGA Championship, but the ballpark mentally that has taken over tour events is almost directly related to Tiger, for better or worse. He has the talent to do remarkable things with a golf ball, and the charisma to make it look exciting.
TV ratings soar when Tiger plays, dwindle when he doesn't. In short, no one cares when he's not there. And when he's not, it's the proverbial tree-falls-in-an-empty-forest. Did it really happen? Does anyone care? Padraig Harrington won the British Open and PGA in 2008 when Tiger was recuperating from reconstructive knee surgery, but does anyone really think he would have won both those majors - or either of them - if a fully healthy Tiger had been in the field?
But here is where it gets tricky for those who think Tiger already is the greatest golfer ever. For one, he is still four major victories behind Nicklaus. At 33, he seems fully capable of reaching that total. But he's not there yet. (Nicklaus, by the way, won seven majors after he turned 33.)
The other, more telling fact about Tiger is that he has never won a major championship when he did not at least share the lead going into the final day. Nicklaus, by contrast, won eight of his 18 majors by making up deficits to start the final round, including his first one, in 1962. That was when a 22-year-old, tubby, chain-smoking, toe-headed guy from Ohio beat the charismatic Arnold Palmer (also a smoker ... hey, it was more common back then) in a playoff at Oakmont Country Club, in Palmer's backyard, no less.
A lot is made of the intimidation factor with Tiger, whose highlight reels would keep ESPN in business for months. He won his first major, the 1997 Masters, by a dozen shots. He claimed the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach in 2000 by a ridiculous 15 strokes. He won the British Open at St. Andrews, also in 2000, by eight shots.
As a frontrunner, he is phenomenal. But until he shows he can erase a deficit to start the final round of a major, that intimidation factor only goes so far. Let's see Tiger really make up some ground. Maybe he can this week in the British Open at Turnberry.
Nicklaus, meanwhile, won each of the four majors (Masters, U.S., British, PGA) at least once after trailing going into the final round. The largest deficit, 4 strokes, came in his final major win, the 1986 Masters, when a 46-year-old Nicklaus shot 30 on back the nine at Augusta to grab his sixth green jacket.
Will Tiger be playing at Augusta when he's 46? Will he still be competitive at 46?
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