Off and running at the PGA Championship

One round down at the PGA Championship, and two story lines emerge:

The rumors of Tiger Woods' demise are a bit premature. The same guy who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat last week in Akron, Ohio, birdied three of the first four holes to quickly get on the leaderboard and finished with a 1-under-par 71. It could have been better, no question, but he looked a little more comfortable than the guy who shot over par all four rounds in Akron.

The year's final major, which sets aside about 20 spots for club professionals - the guys who give us hackers lessons on the practice tee - also has taken on an international look. American Matt Kuchar led at 5-under 67 in a first round completed Friday, and 16 other Americans were also under par, but those who bettered Whistling Straits' par of 72 included pros from 15 other countries. Overall, the field of 156 included players representing 22 nations, from South Africa to South Korea, Canada to Colombia, Australia to Argentina, France to Fiji.

Thanks to fog along Lake Michigan that delayed the start of play Thursday and Friday, just under half of the golfers didn't finish their first round until Friday morning. But already there's been a lot of solid golf. A total of 42 players broke par, almost a third of the field.

Behind Kuchar, the foursome at 4-under 68 included an American (long-hitting Bubba Watson), a South African (Ernie Els), a South Korean (Seung Yul Noh) and an Italian (Francesco Molinari, the younger of two Molinari brothers playing in the PGA).

Els, by the way, leads my team of 12 players to beat this week. Only two others I picked broke par in the first round, American Dustin Johnson and Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy, both at 1-under 71.

I also had German Martin Kaymer, who got off to a hot start with birdies on three of his first four holes, but cooled off considerably after that and wound up at even-par 72. Also at that figure was one of my six Americans, Steve Stricker.

My other seven players were all over par. Phil Mickelson, looking to add a second major this year after taking the Masters in April, and fellow American Rickie Fowler shot 73; another U.S. pro, 2009 U.S. Open champ Lucas Glover, shot 74; three-time major champion Padraig Harrington of Ireland and American Sean O'Hair carded 75s; at 76 were Japanese teen sensation Ryo Ishikawa and South African Retief Goosen, a two-time U.S. Open champ who birdied two of the first three holes and promptly double-bogeyed the next two holes.

My guys at par or better need to pick it up a bit in the second round. Those several shots over par likely will need a round in the 60s in order to make the cut for the final two rounds.

12 players to beat at the PGA Championship

Who will win the final major championship on the men's tour this year? Will it be someone with a history of winning majors, like Phil Mickelson, who added to his trophy case by taking the Masters in April? Or will it be a third straight first-timer, following U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell of Northern Ireland and British Open champ Louis Oosthuizen of South Africa?

Experience counts for something, but probably not as much as you'd think. Newcomers winning a major is almost a 50-50 proposition. Every year since 2001, at least one of the majors has been won by a golfer who had not won a major before.

In 2003, all four majors were won by first-timers: Canadian Mike Weir at the Masters and Americans Jim Furyk at the U.S. Open, Ben Curtis at the British Open and Shaun Micheel at the PGA. By the way, none of those four has won a major since then. Likewise for other 21st century major champs David Duval (2001 British), David Toms (2001 PGA), Rich Beem (2002 PGA), Todd Hamilton (2004 British), Michael Campbell (2005 U.S. Open), Geoff Ogilvy (2006 U.S. Open), Zach Johnson (2007 Masters), Trevor Immelman (2008 Masters), Lucas Glover (2009 U.S. Open), Stewart Cink (2009 British) and Y.E. Yang (2009 PGA).

Since 1991, roughly half (40 of 79) of the majors were won by first-timers. Thirty of those 40 winners have won no other major.

So the key to predicting a winner seems to be picking the right mix of players who have been to the winner's circle before, players on the cusp of greatness and players likely to catch lightning in a bottle.

With that in mind, I am approaching the PGA Championship, which starts Thursday at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wis., with four players from each of these three categories.

The multiple-major winners: Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Padraig Harrington.

The up-and-comers: Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Ryo Ishikawa.

The one-timers: Dustin Johnson, Martin Kaymer, Sean O'Hair, Steve Stricker.

Mickelson, who didn't win his first major until 2004 (his 13th year on tour,, when he was almost 34), seems to be making up for lost time. A win this week would be the 40-year-old Lefty's fifth major title in seven years. Els, also 40, hasn't won a major since the 2002 British Open, but he's playing some of the most inspired golf of his career this year, and he tied for fourth in the 2004 PGA when it was last held at Whistling Straits.

Goosen, 41, a two-time U.S. Open champion, has 12 top-10 finishes in majors this decade, and a win this week would not be a major surprise. Harrington, who will be 39 on Aug. 31, is seeking his fourth major title in the past three years, and he's the only player in the past 12 years other than Tiger Woods to win more than one major in a single year.

Among the up-and-comers, Glover barely fits. For one, he's 30, nine years older than McIlroy and Fowler, 12 years older than Ishikawa. Also, he's already won a major, last year's U.S. Open when everyone else seemed to find ways to lose. But I'm not sure he's done winning majors; he has a great temperament and enough game to pull off another.

McIlroy, currently ranked No. 8 in the world, could be either the next Tiger Woods, and win a bunch of majors, or the next Sergio Garcia, all promise and no major victories. I'd like to believe he's going to win at least one major, and probably several. The only problem is, it seems that every year the talent pool gets so deep that it's harder and harder to stand out.

Fowler is a bit of a wild card here. He's only been a pro a short time, has no tour wins and the PGA is just his fourth major championship appearance. But he also has the ability to put up low numbers, and I like his approach to the game ... fearless.

Ishikawa is a prodigy, pure and simple. He won't turn 19 until September, and he won on the Japan tour before his 16th birthday. He's already got eight pro wins, seven on the Japan tour, and shot a 58, lower than anyone has ever gone on the PGA Tour, in winning a Japan tour event in May.

The one-timer label is kind of a backhanded compliment, guys I believe good enough to win a major, but not two. When he grabbed the 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open in June at Pebble Beach, I thought Dustin Johnson might be one of those up-and-comers, but he blew his chances in a big way on the second and third holes of the final round. At the second hole, the right-handed Johnson ridiculously tried to hit a recovery shot left-handed and nearly whiffed; at the third hole, he hit his tee shot so badly the ball was lost in a grove of trees as he and a couple hundred spectators couldn't locate the ball.

Now, I think Johnson may be in the one-timer class. He's still an impressive player, with the length to tackle any course (Tiger says Johnson is "stupid long" off the tee). John Daly was once known for being mostly a bomber, but even he won two majors, so I think Johnson is good for one. Whether it's this week or not is speculation.

Stricker, meanwhile, would be fortunate to qualify for the one-timer category. He's a veteran, has 17 pro wins, nine top-10 finishes in majors and currently is ranked No. 4 in the world, behind Woods, Mickelson and Lee Westwood. Also, he might be a crowd favorite this week since he grew up in Edgerton, Wis., 130 miles away from Kohler where the PGA will be contested. That's the upside. The downside is that he's never won a major, and he's 43. Tom Kite won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach in 1992 at 42, and Julius Boros was 48 when he won the 1968 PGA, but Stricker's opportunities may be running out.

Kaymer, 25, grew up in Dusseldorf, Germany, mostly plays the European Tour and is little known in the U.S. However, he's finished in the top 10 in three of the past four majors and has exceptional talent. He won a pro tournament as a 19-year-old amateur and once shot a 58 in another event, playing the final 16 holes 14 under par.

O'Hair, 28, could also be considered a darkhorse. He has just three PGA Tour wins, but one came in 2005 when he was named the tour's rookie of the year. That's an encouraging sign, though, since eight of the past 19 rookies of the year have won majors.

That's my dozen picks for the PGA this week. Will one of them win? Who knows, but the process of selecting them has been an exquisite challenge.

Stop blaming Tiger

It's time to stop blaming Tiger Woods.

Not for the mess that has become of his life and golf game ... for that, he gets full blame. His soon-to-be-ex-wife, Elin Nordegren, is reportedly in line to get at least $100 million in a divorce settlement. And anyone who saw Tiger play at Firestone Country Club in Akron last week got a glimpse of something equally ugly, the No. 1 player in the world sleep-walking around the golf course, taking little time between shots and probably wishing he were somewhere else, anywhere else.

He seemed to take more care on Sunday signing an autograph on a golf glove for the fan he struck in the face with an errant shot. His 72 holes at Firestone included 10 birdies, 22 bogeys and three double bogeys. He did not match par any day and finished at 18 over par, beat one pro in the 80-player field and wound up 30 shots behind Hunter Mahan.

Tiger enters the year's final major, the PGA Championship starting Thursday at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wis., still the No. 1 player in the world (technically), but far from the best player in the field right now. Blame him for all of that.

But stop blaming Tiger for all the attention lavished on him in the nine months since he cracked up his Escalade at the end of his driveway in Florida last November. No, the blame must be shared: by anyone who has continued to care what a so-so golfer is doing week in and week out; TV networks that continue to waste air time on a guy who looks a lot like me when I'm hacking my way around the local muni; lazy reporters and columnists with so little initiative that they ignore real news in the world of golf; people who don't immediately turn off the TV and do something more meaningful with their lives, like mow the lawn; and folks who buy those tabloid rags at the supermarket check-out stand looking for the latest juicy gossip on a fallen hero.

I hate to say it, but that means the blame falls on almost all of us.

We need to get beyond Tiger Woods. Until he becomes a world-beater again on the golf course, he's yesterday's news.

The Ryder Cup and sportsmanship

Until about 20-25 years ago, the Ryder Cup was a biennial walkover for the United States against teams from the United Kingdom (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales). Every two years, the U.S. and U.K. sides would square off, but the U.K. contingent usually didn't put up much of a fight. Two-ball, four-ball, better-ball, singles matches ... it really didn't matter. The Americans were better, pure and simple.

Still, it was civilized. You had gentlemen golfers like Jack Nicklaus and Tony Jacklin. Their deciding singles match in 1969 was a prime example of the beautiful symbiosis of competition and sportsmanship.

In 1969, the U.S. squad came to Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, having won 14 of the previous 18 Ryder Cup matches. But Jacklin did something few expected; he fought Nicklaus to a standoff. Furthermore, Jacklin might have won that match, and, with it, return the Ryder Cup to the U.K. But Nicklaus holed a nailbiting 5-foot par putt on the final hole to ensure at least a tie with Jacklin and no worse than a 16-16 draw that, by Ryder Cup rules, would keep the cup in U.S. hands.

Jacklin was no slouch. The most accomplished English golfer of his generation, he had won the British Open earlier in 1969 and would win the U.S. Open in 1970, the only European to do so from 1926 until Northern Ireland's Graeme McDowell won this year at Pebble Beach. Still, Jacklin faced a 2-foot par putt of his own at 18. Had he missed, Nicklaus would have won the singles match and given the U.S. a 16-1/2 to 15-1/2 victory over the U.K.

Nicklaus, who by that time had already won seven major championships and would go on to win 11 more, didn't need to watch Jacklin sweat over a 24-inch putt with the outright Ryder Cup title hanging in the balance. He conceded the putt to England's favored son, on British soil, and the two men walked off the 18th green at Birkdale, foes but more importantly friends.

Jacklin played on six straight Ryder Cup teams (1967, 1969, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1977), and that draw in 1969 was the closest he would come to winning as a player, although he eventually succeeded as Ryder Cup captain after the format was expanded in 1979 to include European players on the U.K. side. In 1985, captain Jacklin's Team Europe won at The Belfry in Warwickshire, England, the first time in 28 years the U.S. had lost. Proving it was no fluke, the Euros repeated as champions in 1987 at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio, the first time the Americans had ever lost the Ryder Cup on U.S. soil.

The Ryder Cup has been competitive ever since, thanks in large part to the expansion of the U.K. to include the rest of Europe. Spaniards such as Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Olazabal were among the first to both benefit from the rules change and also boost their side's talent pool.

However, the increased competition has also come at a cost. The sportsmanship has been replaced at times by gamesmanship, and without pointing fingers, players from both sides have occasionally been at fault. The fans have gotten into it as well, with nationalistic fervor in golf seeming at times to rival the hooliganism of World Cup soccer fans.

Nothing prepared me, though, for the events of the past couple months involving the most recent former captains of the European and U.S. squads, Nick Faldo and Paul Azinger.

Both are exceedingly proud men who were warriors during their playing days. Faldo, an Englishman who at 20 was a Ryder Cup teammate of Jacklin's in 1977, won the Masters and British Open three times each. Azinger, a native of Massachusetts who now makes his home in Florida, captured the 1993 PGA. Their paths crossed memorably in 1987 at the British Open, held at Muirfield in Scotland. In brutal weather that took down one contender after another, Faldo incredibly posted 18 consecutive pars on the final day to win by one shot over Azinger, who bogeyed the final two holes.

It was the first of Faldo's six major titles. He was No. 1 in the world for almost two years, while Azinger would have to wait another six years for his first major victory. It surely must have killed Zinger, and the fact that the two men for quite a while shared a booth on CBS golf telecasts is testament to their ability to put aside any past bitterness.

But if Faldo and Azinger can get along (though something tells me they're not exactly BFFs), it doesn't seem as if their successors as Ryder Cup captains are feeling much love these days. Corey Pavin, the 1995 U.S. Open champ and a three-time Ryder Cup competitor (1991, 1993, 1995), was named in December 2008 to succeed Azinger as U.S. captain.

Zinger lobbied publicly to retain the job, although repeat captaincy is more the exception these days than the rule. It seems that he didn't take it too well, though, and he's been equally vocal in his criticism of Pavin, who hasn't yet made his four captain's picks for the 12-man U.S. squad that will compete in the Ryder Cup on Oct. 1-3 at the Celtic Manor Resort in Newport, Wales.

And what was Pavin's crime? He hasn't consulted with Azinger about strategy for the Ryder Cup.

Faldo is similarly miffed at Colin Montgomerie, the great Scot who as an eight-time Ryder Cup player never lost in singles play. Montgomerie, named in January 2009 to captain Team Europe, has also not consulted with the previous captain, although in his case there is probably some bad blood. In 2008, Faldo passed over Monty for his two captain's picks, naming instead Paul Casey and Ian Poulter.

Faldo and Azinger need to get over themselves. These are a couple of 50-year-olds who are acting like petulant children. Yes, it would have been nice if Pavin and Montgomerie had reached out for advice, but it's not mandated. They get to line up their teams, just as Faldo and Azinger before them were entrusted with that duty.

Let's hope better behavior prevails once the Ryder Cup starts in October.

British Open review

Three majors down, one to go ... and how have we done on our picks so far?

Well, as I did in the U.S. Open, I didn't have the winner, but I'm guessing almost no one predicted Louis Oosthuizen would not only win at Scotland's venerated St. Andrews, but that the South African would run away with it by seven shots.

If you had said before the year's third major that a South African would hold the claret jug on the Sunday evening at St. Andrews, you might have found some takers. But they likely would have suggested that the South African would be Ernie Els, a two-time U.S. and British Open champion, or Retief Goosen, a two-time U.S. Open winner who's seemingly always right there in the British Open (eight top-10s), or perhaps the talented Tim Clark, a steady player still looking for his first major. Or maybe Trevor Immelman, a former Masters champ, or Charl Schwartzel, Oosthuizen's best friend from their days playing junior golf together. Schwartzel has made the cut in all three majors this year but hasn't had that breakout round that could make him a threat.

So Oosthuizen it is, and 10 points if you can properly pronounce his name.

As for my guys? Well, the good news was that nine of the 12 I picked before the British Open made the cut, a shade better than my picks for the Masters (8 of 12) but a bit below my record at the U.S. Open (11 or 12).

For what it's worth, one of my 12 for St. Andrews was runner-up Lee Westwood of England. He and Oosthuizen were the only players in the field to break par all four days. But Westwood was a distant second at 9 under par to Oosthuizen's 16 under.

I also had two others who finished in the top six: Paul Casey, another Brit, who tied for third at 8 under, and Goosen, sixth alone at 7 under.

Sentimental pick Sergio Garcia, the Spaniard written off by almost everyone these days after his early promise a decade ago, might have surprised a few people. He strung together steady if unspectacular rounds of 71-71-70-72 to tie for 14th, and I'm picking him to do well in the year's final major at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin next month.

My other selections who got to play all four rounds:

Northern Ireland's Graeme McDowell, this year's U.S. Open champion (much like Oosthuizen, a surprise winner), tied for 23rd at 3 under.

Australia's Robert Allenby, tied for 27th at 2 under.

American Ricky Barnes, a contender after two rounds who faded on the weekend and tied for 44th at even par.

Phil Mickelson, tied for 48th at 1 over. He was never really in the hunt, which shouldn't be surprising since, despite his success in the other three majors (three Masters titles, including this year, a PGA crown and five runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open), Lefty has a terrible track record in the oldest of the four majors. He's had only one top-10 finish and three missed cuts in 17 attempts at the British Open.

Britain's Ian Poulter, who put a target on his back before the British Open even began by suggesting in the English tabloids that there was a talent vacuum in the U.S., and that Europeans were poised to fill that empty space. His countrymen, Westwood and Casey, did their part, but Poulter was all-talk, no-action after winding up in a tie for 60th at 3 over.

My other three pre-tournament picks at the British Open (Els, England's Justin Rose and South Korea's K.J. Choi) all missed the cut.

Expect some jockeying, and some liberal substituting, of my picks for the PGA Championship.

How my guys are doing at St. Andrews

There are different and sometimes creative ways of feeling snakebit when your predictions are a bit off.

Among my dozen players picked prior to the U.S. Open last month at Pebble Beach was a guy from Northern Ireland, young phenom Rory McIlroy. And, a guy from Northern Ireland won the tournament, Graeme McDowell.

A similar thing has been happening to me in the British Open at St. Andrews. Among my 12 pre-tournament picks for the British Open were three players from South Africa, one from Spain, three more from England and another from South Korea, among other places. And a South African was leading after three rounds, with a Englishman in second, a Spaniard tied for fourth and a South Korean tied for 12th.

None of them, however, were my picks. South African Louis Oosthuizen led, while my three picks from that country were Retief Goosen, Ernie Els and Tim Clark. Goosen wasn't far off after three rounds, but Els and Clark had brutal second rounds and missed the cut.

The Brit in second was Paul Casey, while the three Brits I selected were Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Justin Rose. Westwood was still in the hunt heading into the final round, tied for fourth although eight shots behind Oosthuizen. Poulter, after making waves in the British newspapers by declaring American's pro golf dynasty over, finished well back, and Rose failed to qualify for the weekend rounds.

The Spaniard tied for fourth? Alejandro Canizares. My matador? Sergio Garcia, a sucker pick considering his bitter history in majors, especially the British Open. To his credit, El Niño didn't blow away and was tied for 12th entering the final round.

The South Korean tied for 12th was amateur Jin Jeong. My South Korean, K.J. Choi, didn't make the cut.

Overall, though, I was fairly fortunate with my selections, with eight of 12 making the cut. Two rounds and out were Els, Clark, Rose and Choi. But Westwood, Goosen and American Ricky Barnes were in the top 10 after 54 holes, followed by Garcia, McDowell (tied for 18th), Phil Mickelson (tied for 33rd), Australian Robert Allenby (tied for 48th) and Poulter.

Summer in St. Andrews ... brrr!

Golf in Scotland is a little like a baseball game in San Francisco, especially back when the Giants still played at Candlestick Park. You might bask in brilliant sunshine, but you're just as likely to endure gray skies, even howling wind and perhaps rain.

You dress in layers, because you never know which season you're going to get. Often, you'll experience a bit of all four seasons.

They got mostly nice weather for Thursday's opening round of the British Open at St. Andrews, Scotland, but there were gusts of wind, short-lasting showers and bits of bitter cold. It may be summer in the Northern Hemisphere right now, but bear in mind, St. Andrews is further north than 49 of the 50 United States. It's even further north than Ketchikan, Alaska.

The weather was most fortunate for those who teed off early on Thursday. Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy, who turned 21 in May, teed off in the 11th threesome in benign conditions and led with a 9-under-par 63, tying the record for low round in a major championship.

Others high on the leaderboard also got an early start. John Daly, the 1995 British Open champ, and Andrew Coltart, both in the sixth group off the first tee, toured in 6-under 66.

A total of 20 of the 45 players who shot in the 60s played in the first 15 groups out of 52 in the 156-man field. That included two of the 12 players I picked on Wednesday to have a chance to win the 150th Open Championship, Australian Robert Allenby and 2002 Open champ Ernie Els of South Africa, both at 69.

Overall, my dozen players did OK, with 10 breaking par of 72 and only South Korea's K.J. Choi really well out of it. Choi shot 4-over 76, 13 strokes off the lead and needing a very good round on Friday in order to qualify for the weekend.

My low man was Britain's Lee Westwood, hobbled by a calf muscle tear but able to put together a 5-under 67 that included five straight birdies on the front nine. American Ricky Barnes had five birdies in the first 12 holes en route to a 4-under 68. Allenby and Els each had no bogeys in their 3-under 69s, while South African Retief Goosen also shot 69 in more of a rollercoaster round that included only one par in the first seven holes.

My other picks: England's Justin Rose at 2-under 70, with Tim Clark of South Africa, Ian Poulter of England, Graeme McDowell of Northern Ireland and Sergio Garcia of Spain all at 1-under 71. Phil Mickelson, whose record in the British Open is spotty at best (only one top-10 finish in 15 attempts), had 16 pars and a double-bogey before finally making birdie at 18 to finish at 1-over 73.